Atalanta vs Lazio
Early Sunday evening in Bergamo for a leading Serie A encounter – well, I can think of much worse places to be!
There’s much to play for too, which makes this SBOTOP scribe think it will be an entertaining contest full of Serie A 2025 highlights.
Talking Points
In truth, neither side is in great form.
If Lazio are going to qualify for the Champions League, now is the time to start a winning run and stake their claim.
With just one victory in their last five league games, they are in seventh place in Serie A but still only four points off fourth place which would guarantee a place at Europe’s top table next term.
Of course, they can still qualify via the Europa League (a quarter-final with the minnows of Bodo/Glimt awaits next week).
Last summer, Lazio replaced Ugor Tudor with Hellas Verona’s so-called ‘miracle worker’ Marco Baroni and things began quite well for the capital city club.
However, their 1-1 draw with Torino last time out means they have managed just three victories (against Cagliari, Monza and Milan), in their last nine league games.
Their main absentee this weekend is French midfielder Matteo Guendouzi who is suspended. Taty Castellanos is set for a 20-minute cameo as Lazio look to ease him back into the team, while Tijjani Noslin has missed the last two training sessions and it remains to be seen if the Dutchman will be fit in time.
Despite not being in a great run of form themselves, Atalanta are in a much healthier position which, given the differing resources between them and the clubs around them, is a mighty feat.
Last season’s Europa League winners are currently in third place in the table and, until recently, had a chance to gatecrash the title race until back-to-back defeats to Inter and Fiorentina left them with too much ground to claw back on leaders Inter Milan and Napoli.
Just five wins in 19 matches in all competitions since Christmas has been a blow but the fact they are still in third place shows just what a good job Gian Piero Gasperini and his men have done as they continually upset the more established clubs to showcase their ambition.
Their main doubts for this game surround Odilon Kossounou and Stefan Posch, who both face a race against the clock to be fit, while Giorgio Scalvini and Gianluca Scamacca remain ruled out.
At the premiere of a new documentary on their Europa League triumph, Lega Serie A President Ezio Simonelli this week praised Atalanta. ‘They are the example of good management and Gian Piero Gasperini, the pride of Italian football.’
Of course, he is quite right. The club from Bergamo had spent most of its existence yo-yoing between Serie A and B, with their ambitions rarely stretching beyond mid-table comfort.
Yet since Gasperini took over in the summer of 2016, they qualified for the Champions League, reached the Coppa Italia Final, challenged for the Scudetto and last year won their first UEFA tournament.
Victory on Sunday will move them one step closer to another season at Europe’s top table.
History
Their most famous meeting came in the 2019 Italian Cup Final, a trophy Lazio won after two goals in the final eight minutes from substitute Sergej Milinkovic-Savic and Joaquin Correa sparked home celebrations in the capital and ensured they would not be beaten by the Bergamo Boys three times that season.
Since then, they have met 12 times and there have been some thrillers.
That included the following season when they shared six goals in Rome before Atalanta edged a five-goal contest at home.
The spoils were shared in their meetings last season.
Both teams won on home soil with Lazio edging the best of five goals thanks to a Matias Vecino strike seven minutes from time.
Charles De Ketelaere and Castellanos had scored twice in the opening 11 minutes to put Lazio in the ascendancy before headers from Ederson and Sead Kolasinac brought Atalanta back level.
Gasperini’s men won the return game 3-1 with Mario Pasalic and De Ketelaere (two, one penalty) the goal-getters before Ciro Immobile grabbed a consolation from the spot.
The league match in the Italian capital earlier this term ended all square when Marco Brescianini netted a late leveller after Fisayo Dele-Bashiru had put Lazio in front midway through the first half.
This will be the 67th encounter between the two sides in Bergamo across all competitions (with the count stopping at 56 in Serie A alone). The hosts come out on home soil with 26 wins against Lazio’s 11 and a further 29 draws).
Overall, the clubs have been well matched with 40 Atalanta triumphs, 35 Lazio successes and 43 draws.
Their first ever meeting came in December 1937 when Lazio scored four second-half goals without reply at home.
The marksmen that day were Libero Marchini, Silvio Piola (two) and Giovanni Costa.
Betting Tip
Our Serie A 2025 betting odds make Atalanta clear favourites and, despite their recent run of form, I think they will bounce back with victory against opponents with one eye on their upcoming Europa League quarter-final.
The club from the capital are on offer 1X2 @ 4.23 and Asian Handicap +0.50 @ 2.20, compared to Atalanta who are priced 1X2 @ 1.73 and Asian Handicap -1.00 @ 2.28.
The draw @ 3.50 is appealing, as is another 1-1 draw which will pay out with Correct Score @ 6.90.
I have considered various goal bets and the ones that have caught my eye are over 2.75 @ 2.05, total goal 2-3 @ 2.00 and 4-6 @ 3.11.
I am, however, going for a home win all the way with a ** bet of Half Time Full Time Home Home @ 2.61.
A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR (⭐) BETS ARE WORTH:
⭐⭐⭐= €20 (HIGHLY CONFIDENT)
⭐⭐= €10 (CONFIDENT)
⭐= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT)
Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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