Serie A: All Roads Lead to Rome for an Unmissable Derby

Lazio vs AS Roma

Claudio Ranieri’s Roma are staying in town on Sunday when they will expect nothing less than a hostile welcome from their neighbours.

The Serie A match between Lazio and AS Roma is one of the biggest fixtures on the European football calendar, and this one has even more spice than usual as Marco Baroni’s hosts sit in sixth place in the league table, one place and two points above their city rivals. With fourth-placed Bologna just two points further on, both Lazio and Roma are on the hunt for a Champions League place.  

After a poor run of form, Lazio had a moral boosting 1-0 win away to Atalanta last week, but they followed that up with a shock Europa setback, losing 2-0 away to Bodo/Glimt and with plenty of work to do in the second leg next week. Meanwhile, I Giallorossi continued their progress under Ranieri with a 1-1 draw at home to Juventus.  

The Serie A 2025 betting odds say we’re in for a classic at the Stadio Olimpico on Sunday, so let’s look at the two camps and make our SBOTOP picks.

 

Talking Points

Lazio looking to rekindle their 2024 form

The Biancocelesti looked well on course to better their seventh-place finish from last term after a hugely impressive first half of the campaign, when they were up there as potential Scudetto dark horses. But 2025 has not gone as well as the second half of 2024 and, on Thursday, Lazio reached a new low when they lost 2-0 to rank Europa outsiders Bodo/Glimt, and it could have been worse than a two-goal deficit to make up.

Before they met Roma in January, Lazio had a 15-point lead over their rivals, but that gap has shrunk to two and it would have disappeared entirely had Gustav Isaksen’s goal not handed them all three points against third placed Atalanta. If was only the fifth league win of the calendar year for Baroni’s men, and now he needs his big players to stand up for the crucial last few weeks. 

Captain Mattia Zaccagni has scored eight goals and made six assists this season, and the Azzurri star has already scored two Rome derby winners, and there may also be a start for ex-Giallorossi star Pedro.

But the big Serie A 2025 news emerging from the blue side of Rome is the chance of striker Taty Castellanos returning. He is top scoring with nine goals this season but has been sidelined recently. An appearance from the bench against Bodo/Glimt suggests he’s ready for a start. And the Argentine striker would dearly love to take on Roma after he was sent off in the hot-tempered Rome Derby defeat in January.

But Lazio will be without defender Nuno Tavares, who has been a big contributor with eight assists this season.  

 

Roma 15 unbeaten under Ranieri

A few eyebrows were raised when Claudio Ranieri came back to Roma for a third stint as boss, and the 73-year-old has done better than anyone could have imagined. Roma are unbeaten in 15 league games under the Tinkerman and have been transformed from a mid-table side into genuine top four contenders.

His team is spearheaded by striker Artem Dovbyk, who has scored 11 goals. But, while playmaker Alexis Saelemaekers is back from suspension, Roma are still without the influential Paulo Dybala, and that could mean a start for Eldor Shomurodov just behind Dovbyk. The Uzbek star scored in Roma’s clash with Juventus last week, which was another six-pointer but, arguably, this one against Lazio means a lot more to Giallorossi fans. 

 

History

The Rome Derby rivalry started back in 1929, and in recent times, Roma are winning the head-to-heads with 29 victories to 22 in all competitions since 1993, winning the return 2-0 when the two teams met in January.

With four wins, one defeat, and one draw from the last six games Roma have been making quick progress while their hosts floundered, but they have not won on their last nine away matches in the Rome Derby. Lazio have been struggling for wins, with just one triumph from their last six games, three draws, and two defeats.

 

Betting Tip

Lazio’ recent meeting with Torino was their last game on home soil, and they would have won it not for a late Toro equaliser, highly frustrating in a game Baroni’s men dominated with 16 shots to seven and six to two on target.

They will be desperate to avoid another defeat to Roma at odds of 2.37. The draw priced at 2.99 would be a disappointment in Lazio’s quest for revenge, and to keep their top four hopes alive.  

I believe Lazio can win this huge match at a price of 2.66, but I suspect against Ranieri’s unbeaten Roma it will be hard work and extremely tense.  

   

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