Champions League: Last Chance Saloon for Gunners

Arsenal vs Real Madrid

There’s simply no getting away from it: this Champions League tie represents last chance saloon for Arsenal.

This was actually a campaign which promised so much to the extent that, in early September, I tipped the Gunners for the Premier League title.

As all SBOTOP readers now know, that is not going to happen; partly down to a genuine run of misfortune with injuries in key positions at pivotal moments; partly because they failed to strengthen in attack in January when they really needed to due to such absences.

The reality though, is that all remains to provide a silver lining on their 2024-25 campaign, is delivering Champions League 2025 highlights and ending their near five year trophy drought.

Up next, Europe’s top team and the current holders.

 

Talking Points

Both sides had disappointing results domestically in the build-up to this one.

Arsenal drew 1-1 at Everton which, in the scheme of things, kept them sitting pretty in second spot and confirmed that manager Mikel Arteta sees this tie as his priority. That was evident as he left a number of star men on the bench, the returning Bukayo Saka, captain Martin Odegaard and Thomas Partey the main trio.

They will all start as the mighty Real Madrid arrive in London, though my suspicion is they won’t have quite enough over two legs.

This view has been strengthened after centre back Gabriel was ruled out for the remainder of the season with the club confirming he requires hamstring surgery.

The Brazilian was substituted in the first half of Arsenal’s 2-1 win against Fulham last week and his influence cannot be underestimated.

Until the weekend, the former Lille defender had started 28 of their 30 league matches, helping the club to the best defensive record in the division with 25 goals conceded.

Indeed, since his league debut, Arsenal have won 63.5% of the 159 games he has played, but only 40.9% of the 22 he has missed.

His absence will be keenly felt against an attack comprising world superstar Kylian Mbappe and Vinícius Júnior.

The Brazilian actually had a weekend to forget as he missed a penalty as Real were defeated 2-1 at home by Valencia, a result which leaves them four points off the summit in La Liga.

It should be said, though, that Madrid dominated possession throughout the game and created opportunities only to find Valencia goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashviliin superb form with a series of saves, including blocking Vinícius’s first-half penalty.

They will be without midfielder Aurelien Tchouameniat the Emirates as he serves a one match suspension, joining long term absentees Dani Carvajal and Eder Militao in missing the encounter.

However, Ferland Mendy (muscle), Thibaut Courtois (muscle) and one-time Gunner, Dani Ceballos (calf), are expected to shake off the issues that forced them to miss the Valencia game.

For the home side, Raheem Sterling is banned and Gabriel Jesus (knee), Kai Havertz (hamstring), Takehiro Tomiyasu (knee) and versatile defender Riccardo Calafiorijoin Gabriel on the sidelines.

With the Saka-led trio mentioned above, and Jurrien Timber and Gabriel Martinelli also set for starts after being on the bench at Goodison, Arsenal should be that bit fresher.

It’s just a gap at the heart of their defence which may prove too big to bridge over two legs of what should be exciting, attacking football.

 

History

These clubs have met twice competitively, both in this competition.

It was a last-16 tie in 2006 and the Gunners edged it with a 1-0 victory at the Bernabeu, courtesy of Thierry Henry’s goal. As a result, they became the first ever English side to beat Real in the Spanish capital.

The second leg at Highbury ended goalless and Arsenal went on to reach their first and only Champions League Final that season, losing 2-1 to Real’s arch rivals Barcelona.

 

Betting Tip 

I am very surprised that our Champions League 2025 betting odds make Arsenal favourites. Perhaps I shouldn’t be as all their focus can be on this game, while Real are vying for success on three fronts.

You can back the hosts 1X2 @ 2.16 and Asian Handicap -0.25 @ 1.96. You can back Real 1X2 @ 3.07 and Asian Handicap +0.25 @ 1.94.

Nearly two decades on, another goalless draw in North London will pay out @ 9.60 with Correct Score.

I think this will be a close first leg with a handful of, but not too may goals.

A 1X2 Draw @ 3.00 has caught my eye and is actually going to be my *** tip, although I very nearly plumped for Asian Handicap Real 0.00 @ 2.33.

   

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